End of American Hegemony, Part II

titanicIn 1997, America’s former national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote a book on America’s new role as the only global superpower, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives. He warned that America’s post-Cold War role in the world may not last long:

“In the long run, global politics are bound to become increasingly uncongenial to the concentration of hegemonic power in the hands of a single state. Hence, America is not only the first, as well as the only, truly global superpower, but is also likely to be the very last.” (p.209)

Eighteen years later, in a recent interview he suggests that this may have already taken place:

“The fact of the matter is that the redistribution of global power has produced a situation in which the US is no longer the sole hegemon. The US has to acknowledge the fact that the world is now much more complex.”

While the theater where the era of the Grey Wolf is to set to play out is primarily Europe, my attention for the moment is more focused on the point at which the United States officially (or forcibly) relinquishes her role as the “sole hegemon”. Why this is so important is that St. Hildegard’s five bestial era’s must align with well defined historical periods (she refers to them as “five ferocious epochs of temporal rule”) and the present one (the era of the Black Pig) that began with the fall of the Soviet Union, will likely end with a similar fall of the United States. Shifts in the world’s geopolitical power alignment, for historians, conveniently mark the end of an era and the beginning of another.

In the first part of this series we focused on the unsustainability of America’s financial condition and the consequence of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. We did this by reevaluating the true total debt owed by the United States, combining the government’s reported “official” debt total with the present value of the country’s long-term unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare. America’s official 18 trillion dollar national debt fails to account for these future obligations. Numerous economists have calculated the true dollar figure to exceed 200 trillion, likely forcing the government to devalue its currency through inflation.

dollarBut here in Part II, we will assume that these future liabilities don’t exist or somehow become manageable, leaving the 18 trillion in debt as all the government has left to worry about. Unfortunately America, you are still insolvent!. This will have far reaching domestic and international consequences,  triggering the end, or limiting of, America’s military role in Europe and elsewhere.

Continue reading “End of American Hegemony, Part II”

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The End of American Hegemony

100billionIn St. Hildegard’s vision, the five beasts represent five brief historical periods of time that precede the arrival of the Antichrist (more here). I argue that the first three have passed and the fourth, the era of the Black Pig, I suggest in my book, is coming to an end.

Each one of the previous eras ended with major international crises that led to a redrawing of the map of Europe and a change in the world’s global power structure (the dramatic events of the year 1914, for example). When I look at the present situation in Europe and the West, I think the answer to the question of what sort of events will mark the end of this present era for future historians are not difficult to speculate about.

America has been Western Europe’s defender since the end of WWII. The demise of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War in 1991 left America as the sole hegemon. It might have been a good opportunity to close most of America’s European military bases. Much of Europe was in the process of integrating, eliminating borders and forming the European Union. What chance was there of a WWII happening all over again? Today, America supports hundreds of military bases or facilities in Europe and the world. The question is: how long is this sustainable?

Do you remember the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, otherwise known as Bowles-Simpson? It was commissioned by President Obama in 2010 and charged with coming up with a plan to improve the long term fiscal sustainability of the U.S. government. It failed miserably. The vote against it’s recommendations in the House of Representatives was 382 to 38. It would have sliced 4 trillion off the National Debt, which at the time was about 12 trillion. Today, five years later, the debt has increased to 18 trillion. But there’s more to the story.

Continue reading “The End of American Hegemony”