A recent report published by the International Federation Una Voce analyzes data from a worldwide survey of dioceses. This was an online poll that reached out to the laity with questions about the churches within their diocese which offered Mass in the Extraordinary Form (EF). What is interesting about their methodology is that it was able to take anecdotal evidence and turn it into something that is statistically meaningful.
Professor Joseph Shaw, who helped organize the survey, highlights the striking findings regarding the demographics of traditional churches:
The percentage of dioceses where EF congregations are identified as predominantly old is in no region greater than 11.1%; the percentage where young people, young people and families, or families, is identified as predominant is 72% in North America…
This lopsided demographic was not just the case in North America, but a worldwide phenomenon. Unsurprisingly, according to the report this is reflected in vocations:
The Traditional Mass does not just attract young people, it is associated with a conversion, … from unbelief, from lapsation, or simply to a greater commitment to the Faith. This is reflected by the large number of vocations to the priesthood and religious life found in congregations.
Consequently, the number of young priests preferring the EF is increasing:
Among the clergy, there is a generational divide. Younger priests, and now even many younger bishops, are far more open to the EF than the older generation.
Conversely, Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) publishes statistics on the Catholic Church that mostly come from The Official Catholic Directory. The data on the US Church reveals declining trends across numerous categories in recent decades (pre-pandemic):
- Between 2005 and 2019 the annual baptism of infants plummeted 45% in the US.
- During this same period primary school-age children in parish religious education declined by 35%.
- The percentage of Catholics who attend mass on a weekly basis dropped by 61%.
These numbers are self-reinforcing and point to a bleak future.
Demographics do not explain these declines. While US births per thousand were down 14% between 2005 and 2019, over the same period the US population was up by 12%. Tens of millions of immigrants poured into the US, most of them from predominantly Catholic countries (Central America and The Philippines). What would the numbers have been had that not occurred?
Moreover, it appears certain that when the pandemic passes, the declines in non-traditional Catholic churches will accelerate. In a recent survey, 20% of Catholics ages 18-34 responded that their faith had weakened as a result of the pandemic, for ages 35-54 it was 10%. This poll was conducted in August, before the dramatic surge in coronavirus cases that has occurred since. One priest, Father Illo of the Archdiocese of San Francisco, thinks that less than half of Catholics will return to Mass:
Our Church leaders are hoping that when the church restrictions are lifted people will all come back to Mass, but I don’t see it. …Before COVID, 75% of Catholics did not come to Mass every Sunday on a regular basis. How many of the 25% attending will return? I think we’ll be down to 5–10% of card-carrying Catholics.
Even though statistics on the actual number of Catholics that prefer the Latin Mass are unavailable for now, their demographic trends are clear, and they foretell the future. Church authorities may soon have to choose: embrace tradition or figure out a way to reverse the dismal trends.
…rjt
The Five Beasts 